原创 记者 徐菲远 华夏酒报 今天
As Coronavirus continues to sweep the globe, causing global stocks to plummet, major wine players are suffering.
Across the globe, 80,000 people are currently infected with the virus. Cases have been found in Austria, Croatia, Canada, Italy, Iran and beyond. AS Chinese consumers cut back on drinking and crates of wine remain stuck at Chinese customs, winemakers and distributors are watching stocks fall and inventory build.
China is one of the world’s largest luxury markets, accounting for 30% of LVMH (Moet & Chandon, Dom Perignon, Cloudy Bay) sales and 10% of Pernod Ricard (Campo Viejo, Jacob’s Creek) sales.
The slowing of the market means that global brands are stumbling. Torres, Spain’s leading wine and brandy company, is expecting a major hit, anticipating an 80% drop in sales this month, and a 50% fall in March.
Bordeaux wines, popular in the Asian market, saw a record low according to Liv-ex, falling 38.3% in the week ending February 13, down from 48.8% the previous week.
The fallout is felt strongly in Australia—a particularly rough blow in the wake of the recent apocalyptic fires. Vineyards were damaged, and those that were not, suffer from smoke taint (a fault found when smoke absorbs into the skin of the grape, imparting a smoky, chemical flavor to the fruit).
Australia exports $1.3 billion a year to China, accounting for 20% of the national crop. According to exporters, sales are down 90% across January and February alone. On this trajectory, millions could be lost over the year.
The mammoth China Food & Drinks Fair in Chengdu in March has been postponed. Designed to promote Chinese liquors and connect global producers and distributors, the show attracts 3,000 exhibitors and 300,000 buyers annually. TaoWine, TWC Chengdu Fine Wine Showcase, China International Alcoholic Drinks Expo (CIADE) and Sud de France Wine Roadshow have all been canceled. Shows scheduled for May and beyond are moving ahead, for now.
The effects of coronavirus are particularly evident at ports, where a lack of customs staff means imports have slowed to a trickle.
A third of all Chilean wine is exported to China. Since the outbreak, exports have slumped 50% to 60%, with Chile blaming the downfall on both a slow in orders and a holdup at the ports.
Before coronavirus, China admitted up to 350 containers of Chilean wine a day. Now, an average of 50 cases per day pass through customs. The remaining cases sit in the port, unsold and unconsumed. Even with the backlog at the ports, few cases are being sold.
Howard Park owner Jeff Burch expects the worst. Park told the August Margaret River Times, that “There is a backlog on the [Chinese] docks, with none of it moving. The pipeline is so full it is going to take another 12 months to work through once this thing settles down.”
Brands are now trying to reroute China-destined shipments via other countries on the continent.
Italy, one of the world’s largest wine markets, may face similar rumblings soon. As of Tuesday, 50,000 people in 11 towns are under quarantine.
Another cause of concern: on-premise and off-premise venues are at a standstill. The China Culinary Association reported a 100% drop in operating income across 78% of businesses, meaning food & beverage venues are paying rent, wages, and insurance, but no money is coming back in.
With less diners and drinkers heading out, brands are looking to increased delivery efforts to make up for lost revenue.
Deliveroo has seen volumes increase 60% in January, with a dramatic growth in February.
Other alcohol delivery companies have seen a 50% growth over the first two weeks of February, and 60% prior to that over the Chinese New Year period.
Hindering this growth is a lack of drivers—many are scared to be in that close proximity with potentially contaminated strangers. With this issue, a new e-commerce term has been formed: contactless delivery. Couriers wear face masks and gloves, but never come in contact with the customer—they simply pick up a receipt, drop a package and continue on their route.
冠状病毒让葡萄酒业很受伤
冠状病毒席卷全球，导致葡萄酒销售大幅下跌，主要葡萄酒生产商遭受重创。
目前，全球已有逾80,000人感染了这一病毒。在奥地利、克罗地亚、加拿大、意大利、伊朗等地区均发现了病例。中国消费者减少喝酒的同时，大量葡萄酒仍滞留在中国海关，酒庄和分销商都在关注销量下降和库存增加。
中国是世界上最大的奢侈品市场之一，占LVMH集团销售额的30%，该集团旗下包括酩悦—轩尼诗(Moet&Chandon)、唐培里侬香槟王(Dom Perignon)、云雾之湾(Cloudy Bay)等顶级葡萄酒品牌。保乐力加(Pernod Ricard)销售额的10%来自中国市场，该集团拥有帝国田园(Campo Viejo)、杰西斯(Jacob's Creek)等知名葡萄酒品牌。
市场的放缓意味着这些国际品牌步履蹒跚。西班牙领先的葡萄酒生产商桃乐斯(Torres)预计将受到重创，2月销售额将下降80%，3月下降50%。
伦敦国际葡萄酒交易所的数据显示，在亚洲市场最受欢迎的波尔多葡萄酒交易额创下历史新低，在截至2月13日的一周中下降了38.3%，低于前一周的48.8%。
在澳大利亚，人们更是强烈地感受到了这种后果。尤其经历了最近的大火之后，冠状病毒疫情又带来沉重打击。大火使大量葡萄园受到了破坏，没有遭遇火灾损毁的葡萄园则受到烟味的污染。
澳大利亚每年对中国的葡萄酒出口额达13亿澳元，占该国总产量的20%。出口商称，仅在1月和2月，销售额就下降了90%，估计一年可能损失数百万澳元。
受疫情影响，原定于3月在成都举行的全国糖酒会已经被推迟。该展会旨在推广中国白酒并汇集全球生产商和分销商，每年吸引约3,000家参展商和300,000名买家。TaoWine精品酒店展、TWC君悦全球精品酒巡礼、中国国际酒业博览会和法国南部葡萄酒路演等活动都不得不取消。从目前看来，定于5月及之后举办的活动仍在进展中。
冠状病毒的影响在港口尤为明显，海关人员的缺乏意味着进口速度已经放缓。
智利葡萄酒的1/3出口到中国。自疫情爆发以来，其对中国出口下降了50%至60%，智利将下降归咎于订单延缓和港口滞留。
在疫情发生之前，中国海关每天要接收多达350箱智利葡萄酒。现在，平均每天仅有50箱通关，其余的都滞留在港口，既无法出售，也没有被消费。
豪园酒庄老板Jeff Burch做了最坏的预测，他告诉《八月玛格丽特河时报》说：“ 货物积压在中国港口，没有任何动静。海关通道阻塞，即使恢复正常运转，也需要一年的时间才能处理完。”
一些品牌则在尝试改变路线，通过其他国家将货物运往中国。
作为世界上最大的葡萄酒市场之一的意大利，可能很快也会面临相似的困境。截至2月24日，已有11个城镇的50,000人被隔离。
另一个令人担忧的情况是，即饮和非即饮渠道均处于停顿状态。中国烹饪协会报告称，有78%的企业营业收入下降了100%，这意味着餐饮场所在没有任何收入的情况下，还不得不支付租金、工资和保险。
随着食客和饮酒者的减少，各品牌正寻求加大配送力度以弥补收入的下降。
1月份，外卖平台Deliveroo的销量增长了60%，而2月份更是急剧增长。
其他酒类配送公司在2月的前两周增长了50%，在春节之前增长了60%。
阻碍这一增长的因素是司机的缺乏。许多人害怕与可能受到感染的陌生人近距离接触，因此产生了一个新的电子商务术语——非接触式交付。快递员戴着口罩和手套，但不需要与客户直接联系，他们只是拿起收据，放下包裹，然后继续前进。
稿件来源：Forbes
编译：华夏酒报记者 徐菲远
